CBS poll: McCain now tied with Obama — after trailing by eight points three days ago
Is McCain gaining?
HOTAIR-A 48/40 lead after the convention turns quickly to dust. Better still, the new poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, so her speech hasn’t fully impacted yet.
No crosstabs yet, but note well the trends in enthusiasm. Dude, I think she might be … The One.
McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama’s supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain’s. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain’s supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama’s supporters…
Independents in this poll are divided. In the poll conducted over the weekend, Obama had a six-point advantage with this group, but now the lead is three points, 39 percent to 36 percent.
The poll also shows that the majority of Clinton supporters continue to support Obama – 67 percent in this poll, up from 58 percent last weekend.
McCain has seen a similar uptick from white evangelicals since the weekend – 66 percent now, up from 57 percent.
The base solidifies, Hillary voters come home, and it’s a duel to the death for independents. I like these odds, as much as anyone constitutionally incapable of believing in victory can. (We’re still down seven in Gallup!) Kaus offers the Democrats some good advice on Palin going forward; read it and ponder while I go turn the dial of my pessimism meter up from level seven to level eight, i.e. resigned to heart-ache but now hoping for a smaller than expected margin of defeat.
FYI
5 things to watch out for tonight
Politico-Repeat after us: This is John McCain’s night.
He’s the top of the ticket, the one in the spotlight — you know, the guy running for president of the United States of America.
But as a speaker — as a story — he’s no Sarah Palin.
After Palin’s performance Wednesday night, maybe McCain should have taken a curtain call, thanked everyone for coming and rode the post-Palin roar right out of the Xcel Energy Center and onto the campaign trail.
But there’s still one last night in the Twin Cities.
Here are five things to watch as the Republicans try to make the best of it.
1. Can McCain be McCain?
McCain doesn’t need to electrify the audience with a show-stopping speech like the one Palin delivered Wednesday night. He just needs to be John McCain — or at least the version of John McCain who won New Hampshire and then everything else by calmly connecting with voters one by one.
McCain will try to replicate the New Hampshire experience tonight with a “town hall” set-up — albeit without taking questions from the audience. The 72-year-old senator is at his best when he’s having a blunt conversation with voters. And while “straight talk” doesn’t usually inspire the “Meet the Beatles” screams Palin got Wednesday, McCain can fire up an audience in his own way, as he did at the close of the 2004 convention in New York.
Expect themes of service, leadership and patriotism to ripple through his speech. There won’t be any lipstick on pit bulls — Mo Udall jokes are more his style — and McCain may not throw too much red meat from the stage. With Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani launching a convention’s worth of attacks Wednesday night, McCain may choose to float above it all as the voice of leadership in a new, post-partisan era.
2. McCain’s media “base” is back
Republicans spent the past 48 hours beating the hell out of the media for its salacious coverage of Sarah Palin’s family life. Did they succeed in working the refs, or has the news media coverage simply moved in the Republicans’ favor?
In the course of a news cycle — really, in the course of a speech — the media have gone from obsessing over a pregnant teenage girl and her hunky, hockey-playing boyfriend to fawning over a new “star” who would save the conservative movement.
Three days ago, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said that Palin’s lack of experience meant her nomination would “not work.” Thursday morning, Scarborough said that, a few minutes into Palin’s speech, he told himself that he was looking at “the next president of the United States.”
Expect plenty of media love for McCain tonight if he gives even a reasonably successful speech. Which cable talker will be the first to declare that “the Straight Talk Express is back on track”?
3. The personal story
McCain was once reluctant to exploit his POW experience for political gain. He isn’t anymore. It has been front and center in his campaign, and expect to hear more about it tonight.
Beyond selling the “John McCain, Patriot,” storyline, McCain’s Vietnam experience will be used to draw a contrast with Obama. Palin led a parade of speakers who mocked Obama’s community organizing experience Wednesday night. By recounting, once again, his story of 5½ years in the Hanoi Hilton, McCain will try to send the message that he’s more patriotic — more “American” — than Obama, all while denying that he’s questioning Obama’s patriotism.
4. The Maverick is back
Some of John McCain’s harshest criticisms — especially when it comes to pork barrel spending — have been aimed at members of his own party. Many close McCain watchers have moaned lately that the maverick McCain of 2000 has been mothballed and that the new version is too closed off and careful.
But now that the conservative base is back on board, McCain can play the maverick card all over again. He’s got some breathing room to criticize his own party, especially on spending. As Politico’s David Rogers put it, he may “chide his fellow Republicans for losing their compass.”
5. It’s still the economy, stupid
Any great speech plays to a candidate’s strengths, but McCain also has the chance to show undecided voters that he’s gotten the message on the economy. Will he make the most of the opening?
McCain has been taken to task for saying he doesn’t really “understand” economics, and his confusion about the number of houses he owns didn’t help matters much. At a Politico/Yahoo!/Pioneer Press panel earlier this week, Karl Rove said McCain has to overcome the perception that he’s out of touch on American families’ pocketbook issues.
“The most important thing for McCain to do is find a way to show a comfort with the kitchen table issues,” Rove said. “I think that’s the biggest challenge in tonight’s speech.”
Dear Obama,
This is a disappointed fellow democrat trying to ask you a quick question through CNN.
Just what were you thinking when you choose Biden. He is no agent of change. You should have chosen Hillary for the following reasons.
1. Huge Campaign Contributions
2. 18 million votes plus more
3. A Dream Ticket, That Plain would not be able to wreck
4. She has the experience that Biden has plus charisma
5. You would be able to demonstrate how you can resolve differences and team up.
Now they way I see it sir, when you can’t team up with fellow Democrat, how the heck are you
going to reach out to the conservative right and bring about change.
You wrecked our smooth sailing ship! why???? I hope you win, but I don’t think you will. The tide is
turning you gave Mr Maverick the opening he needed, why???
Ronald thank you for the comment and welcome to control congress.
Thanks for the article on this years election! Very informative… and timely! Keep them coming.