Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
Will McCain win?
USATODAY-The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
“The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference,” says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. “He’s in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point.”
Huge: 20-point shift towards McCain among white women since last month in new ABC poll
THEHILL-He’s still down one overall among registereds and up two among likelies, but Gallup pegged white independents last week as the only demographic group where there’s still a major gender gap and thus room for movement. And now, maybe, here it is. ABC doesn’t break down white women by political affiliation, but the 20-point swing is split almost evenly between Obama losing points (nine) and McCain gaining (11). Can’t be only conservative white women who are responsible for that.
To what or whom do we owe this happy reversal, I wonder. The left has been telling us for 10 days how insulted women are by Maverick’s very cynical pick of our token yokel with two X chromosomes, so it surely can’t be her. Hmmm.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/08/huge-20-point-shift-towards-mccain-among-white-women-since-last-month-in-new-abc-poll/
FOX News/Rasmussen Reports Poll: Presidential Race ‘Competitive’ in Key Battleground States
FOX-A collective look at newly released FOX News/Rasmussen Reports state surveys shows Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia will be key battlegrounds in a very competitive race for the White House.
Four of the five state polls show Barack Obama and John McCain within 3 percentage points of each other. The sole exception — Ohio — shows McCain with a 51 percent to 44 percent advantage and also remains competitive.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/08/fox-newsrasmussen-reports-poll-presidential-race-competitive-in-key-battleground-states/
It just goes to show that the narrative of the Left is pure propaganda. Americans are not clamoring for the Democrats far left agenda, they are demanding accountability and responsibility from our government. The Republicans got it. The Democrats think they got a mandate and are sorely misguided.
No the country is not clamoring for the “far left agenda” (which isn’t offered anyway), the voters are clamoring for change, as in “get these treasonous criminals out of office at any cost” change. Unfortunately the only options offered through the media narrative to accomplish that goal is Dems (A Fake Opposition) or GOP (The Guilty Party). That in itself is a tragedy of immeasurable proportions for the fate of this once great country.
No one has done more to “get these treasonous criminals out of office at any cost” than Sarah Palin has done fighting the Republicans in her state.
Obama clearly stands for the “far left agenda” only it’s cloaked in language meant to obfuscate his platform. Massive wealth redistribution = far left agenda.
You mean like the Fannie Mae/Freddy Mac bailout? That kind of massive wealth redistribution? Yes you’re right, Obama may well bring more of the same bullshit we’ve been dealing with for decades.
Palin endorses PNAC by her mere participation in McCain’s campaign. No matter what you might have seen in her time as governor (which is dubious), she sold out to PNAC on day one of her new-found fame by championing McCain as the epitome of change.
Bush tried to establish more regulation on Fan/Fred but was blocked in 2003 by the National Home Builders Assoc. in cohoots with the Democrats. Fan/Fred is just one more example of government bureacracy gone haywire–all spearheaded by big government liberals.
Get over the PNAC. It has been made into a pariah when it is nothing more than any other government/think tank document. Why don’t you spend some time reading the mission statements of all the other “think tank” documents out there and you will find they all contain pretty prose and ideology that is suppressed from MSM. While you’re at it, spend some time on the UN website and see how much Obama’s platform adheres to the globalist vision of this entity.
Yes, our government is corrupt and has left a path of destruction but, in this election, there is a distinction to be made between those who seek to pursue the greatness of America and those who want America to capitulate to its critics and digress its power. Protecting our global leadership will ensure a prosperous and peaceful future for the world. Just take a look over the ocean and see how the UK and Europe is rapidly devouring their culture and power all in the name of “a better world”. I say no thanks. We will learn from the mistakes of Europe (who by their very nature, brought us WW II) and will promote nationalism, capitalism and individualism in the face of international threats to all three.
“No one has done more to “get these treasonous criminals out of office at any cost” than Sarah Palin has done fighting the Republicans in her state.”
hoads, you’re worshipping a god you barely even know.
Palin is no different than any of the other politicians who run for office. She has pandered to her base just like all politicians do.
She was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it (at least that’s what she told the good people of Ketchikan while she was running for governor). She told the lower 48 press that she didn’t want the bridge; but she gladly took the money that was targeted for the bridge and spent it. The woman knows how to spin.
She gladly accepts support from Ted Stevens; Mr. I-wasnt-bought-by-VECO. New charges against him came out today. I know he’s innocent until proven guilty, but 4 out of 4 state legislators have already been convicted of similar charges related to VECO.
You give her far too much credit for “fighting the Republicans” in Alaska. She simply fell in line with the minority Democrats who had public support for their legislative reform initiative. This isn’t a sign that she’s a reformer, this is simply a sign that she can read which way the wind is blowing.
Oh well, we get what we deserve, and my feeling is that America is due for someone like Palin… unfortunately.
Hoads
I’m not sure how old you are but if you want to know what real conservatism is about there were some real deal small government conservatives at the Ron Paul Rally for the Republic. This is the future of the Party if there’s going to be one IMHO. This wasn’t a bunch of “party over principle” or “follow the leader” types. You guys have fallen in line behind a bunch of crooks and liars.
I think Lew Rockwell may have had one of the best lines of the evening (and I’m paraphrasing here) but he said if you aren’t outraged by what’s going on then maybe you’re medicated.
FYI
Poll shows big shift to McCain among white women
YAHOO-(Reuters) – Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Tuesday brushed aside a survey that showed him losing support among white women voters to John McCain since the Republican standard-bearer named Sarah Palin as his running mate.
A Washington Post/ABC News survey published on Tuesday found most of McCain’s surge in the polls since the Republican National Convention was due to a big shift in support among white women voters.
“The notion that people are swinging back and forth in the span of a few weeks or a few days this wildly generally isn’t borne out,” Obama told reporters during a campaign stop in Riverside, Ohio.
His campaign manager, David Plouffe, was more pointed when asked about the findings at a briefing on Monday, telling a Washington Post reporter, “Your poll is wrong.”
“I don’t think you’ll find many others that back up a 20-point reversal,” Plouffe said. “We certainly are not seeing any movement like that.”
The poll found that the race for the White House is a virtual tie since the parties’ nominating conventions, with Obama, an Illinois senator, at 47 percent support of registered voters and McCain, an Arizona senator, at 46 percent.
Before the Democratic National Convention in late August, Obama held an 8 percentage point lead among white women voters, 50 percent to 42 percent, but after the Republican convention in early September, McCain was ahead by 12 points among white women, 53 percent to 41 percent, the poll found.
“There is no doubt that Governor Palin attracted a lot of attention this week,” Obama told the news conference. “It has brought excitement to the Republican Party.”
“What we’re going to have to do is to see how things settle out over the next few weeks when people start examining who’s actually going to deliver on the issues that people care about: Who’s got an education policy to improve the prospects for our children? Who’s got a healthcare plan that’s going to help a whole bunch of women out there?” he said.
McCain surprised the electorate ahead of the Republican convention by naming the little-known Alaska governor as his vice presidential running mate. Palin received high marks among supporters for her convention address, which included a scathing attack ridiculing Obama’s experience and record.
Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, defeated rival Hillary Clinton in the battle for the Democratic nomination, a long and bitter struggle that left many of the former first lady’s supporters disaffected and angry.
Many of her backers were further angered when Obama ignored her in picking a vice president, choosing instead long-time Delaware Sen. Joe Biden. A key question for the Obama campaign has been whether he would be able to maintain the support of Clinton’s supporters.
I can understand such a shift when Obama makes statements about putting lipstick on pigs. What an idiot!
FYI
NBC/WSJ Poll: ‘08 race turns into a dead heat
Barack Obama holds a narrow one-point lead over John McCain
MSN-Republican John McCain has nearly erased Democrat Barack Obama’s national lead and turned the presidential contest into a dead heat, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
In that poll, Obama holds a narrow one-point lead over McCain (47-46 percent), which is down from his three-point advantage in August (45-42 percent) and six-point edge in July (47-41 percent).
The findings from this survey — which was conducted of 860 registered voters from Sept. 6-8, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points — are consistent with other recent national polls showing the race to essentially be tied after the conventions and vice presidential selections.
Looking inside the numbers, McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to have not only attracted female voters, but boosted McCain’s association with changing the country’s direction, and energized members of the Republican Party.
Excited Republicans
In fact, the number of GOP respondents who say they’re excited about McCain’s candidacy is nearly three times higher than it was last month.
The poll also shows that Obama has improved his standing on some key issues, including several publically-perceived shortcomings. They include whether he would be a risky choice for president and whether he shares certain voters’ values and backgrounds.
It’s more evidence that this presidential contest keeps getting tighter.
“This is kind of the political equivalent of the tortoise and the hare,” said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted this survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart. “McCain continues to gain as we get closer to Election Day.”
One significant shift in the poll is among women. Back in August, Obama was leading McCain by 14 points. Now his lead is just four points.
And just a month ago, McCain trailed Obama by 20 points among women ages 18 to 49. Now the Arizona Republican leads by three points.
‘The Palin factor’
The pollsters attribute these shifts primarily to McCain’s pick of the Alaska governor.
“The Palin factor is remarkable,” said Newhouse. “She has clearly added an excitement factor. There is no question about that.”
Indeed, 34 percent of McCain voters say they’re excited about his candidacy, which is up from 12 percent in August.
But Republicans still face a significant enthusiasm gap in their contest with Democrats. The percentage of Obama voters who say they’re excited about his candidacy is now at 55, up nine points from last month.
Overall, 34 percent say the Palin selection makes them more likely to vote for McCain, versus 25 percent who say the opposite. Forty percent believe it doesn’t make a difference.
By comparison, 24 percent say that Obama’s selection of Joe Biden to be his running mate makes them more likely to vote for the Illinois Democrat in the fall, compared to 16 percent who say the pick makes them less likely to vote for him.
“Clearly, Sarah Palin has hit a gusher,” said Hart. “All of these things say that her initial introduction to American has been a very solid and positive introduction.”
But Hart cautioned that her boost could be fleeting.
He recalled a similar bounce after Walter Mondale unveiled Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate in 1984. “The faster they rise, the steeper they descend.”
White House connections
While McCain has narrowed Obama’s poll lead, he continues to face difficulty distancing himself from President Bush.
Seventy-four percent believe McCain would closely follow Bush’s programs and policies. That’s virtually unchanged from August, when 77 percent believed that about the GOP nominee.
“He hasn’t shaken the perception that his programs and policies would be closely aligned with President Bush’s,” explained Newhouse, the GOP pollster.
McCain, however, has made some progress in portraying himself as an agent of change.
According to the poll, 35 percent say that the Arizona senator is very likely or somewhat likely to bring real change to the country. That’s up considerably from June, when just 21 percent said that about McCain.
By comparison, 52 percent believe that Obama would bring change to the country, which is up four points since June.
Indeed, if it weren’t for the bounce that McCain appears to have received after the Palin pick, the attention would be on much of the progress Obama has made in this poll.
FYI
Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out-Register Republicans?
HP-This week’s mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup’s tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology.
In a year in which Democrats have a lead of 11 million registered voters over Republicans, and have been adding to that advantage through a robust field operation, are pollsters over-sampling Republicans?
Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September’s first Gallup tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including “leaners”) from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll’s two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents.
Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that “when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those [factors] into account,” because newly registered voters aren’t in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. “You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants,” she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account.
Monday’s USA Today poll had a 48-47 split between Democrats and Republicans surveyed. That represents a nearly 10 point shift in party identification toward Republicans since USA Today’s July polling. When asked for comment, USA Today polling editor Jim Norman wrote that “it’s possible” that their latest sample includes too many Republicans. Though he added, “it’s also possible that we have too many Democrats,” because “there’s always the chance of an over- or under-representation” in polls.
Still, Norman admitted that the GOP identification in the latest survey has spiked. “The party ID in our most recent poll does show a shift away from what Gallup has been getting in earlier polls, going all the way back to 2005,” Norman said. “But previous conventions — the Republican one in 1988, the Democratic one in 1992, the Democratic one in 2000 — have also shown shifts in party ID toward the party that had the convention, and those shifts seemed to last, to greater or lesser degrees, though the election. Further, I’ve been told by Gallup that their tracking poll has shown a similar shift in party ID since the Republican convention. … I guarantee you we will be watching closely in all of our polls between now and election day to see whether there are further shifts in party ID in either direction.”
And it’s true. Gallup’s own GOP identification (including leaners) has swung six points in the last month, from 42 percent of voters to 48, according to tables provided to the Huffington Post. Meanwhile, solid and leaning Democrats have fallen from 52 to 48 percent of those polled. For political scientists who believe that partisanship is largely stable over time — and who take note of the advantage in voter registration being experienced by Democrats during the same period — the newly GOP-heavy poll samples can raise eyebrows.
Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz is highly skeptical of the new Gallup, USA Today and CBS polls. About the latter, which showed a statistically insignificant two point lead for McCain, Abramowitz said: “One reason for the dramatic difference between the two recent CBS polls is that the two samples differed fairly dramatically in terms of partisan composition. The first sample was 35.2% Democratic, 26.2 percent Republicans, and 38.6 percent independent. The second sample was 34.9% Democratic, 31.1% Republican, and 34.0% independent. That’s a change from a 9 point Democratic advantage to a 3.8 point Democratic advantage. That alone would probably explain about half of the difference in candidate preferences between the two [CBS] polls.”
If these polls are improperly reflecting the partisan makeup of the electorate at large, it certainly would go part of the way toward explaining anything beyond the quick “dead cat bounce” after the Republican convention. And if the convergence of polls around a small McCain lead has anything to do with sampling error, it would render any claims about a new equilibrium in the race somewhat moot.
One day before USA Today announced its new poll numbers, it also ran an Associated Press story with the headline “Democrats Post Big Gains In Voter Registration.” In that article, the AP noted that, during the primary season, “more than 2 million Democrats [were added] to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states.”
The article proceeded to lay out a variety of statistics that favor Democrats:
Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.
The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.
Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000.
Still, that doesn’t discount the fact that Republicans have definitely made some gains. As Greenberg notes, “Sarah Palin came out and gave a really good speech. She certainly exceeded the low expectations. And then more people watched McCain’s speech than Obama. And now it appears there was a bigger bump for McCain than there was for Obama. … But there always been more room to grow his vote.” Greenberg says the prior lack of enthusiasm among Republicans could have resulted in an inflated rate of survey respondents identifying as independents. “The CBS panels show most of the movement came to McCain from undecided voters, people who were probably holding back from McCain,” Greenberg said.
Despite that, Abramowitz simply doesn’t think the overall spike in Republican sampling among all three polling firms is an accurate reflection of the electorate. “It’s just not likely,” he says. Given how important polls can be in the coverage of the race, even a slight assist to McCain during a period in which he is exciting the Republican base could help him solidify a new narrative in the race, regardless of the partisan facts on the ground.
I would like to see the 45% of independents actually vote independent instead of reaching into one of the two major parties they explicitly refuse to join. That’s merely throwing your vote away into the corrupt two party election monopoly. If you refuse to join the tweedle dee and tweedle dum parties, why do you feel compelled to vote for them? Live up to your independent self and vote for the candidate most aligned with your beliefs (there are at least half a dozen candidates running – find the one that best suits your interests).
“if you aren’t outraged by what’s going on then maybe you’re medicated.”
And if you’re medicated, there’s a good chance your name is Rush Limbaugh
I never get tired of that joke!
D’OOOH! Actually Davey, I think you realize that I’m not on the neocon plantation so I don’t care when people criticize some of the perpetrators. But in reality I don’t think most people are really neocons. It just seems like the best option for them. a.k.a. “lesser of 2 evils”.