Economists may not call it recession, but job stats say it is
How bad is it?
McC-The combination of falling home equity, the rising cost of food, health care and housing, tighter credit and eight straight months of job losses — 84,000 in August alone — has put the squeeze on middle-class families struggling to stay afloat in a slumping economy.
Although economists haven’t yet labeled the economic downturn a recession, every time payrolls have declined this consistently since 1948 the economy has been officially in recession, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based liberal think tank.
“We view this as a crisis economy for American workers,” said Andrew Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project, a pro-labor advocacy group in New York. “It really adds up to a lot of hardship and a lot of uncertainty for people looking for jobs and a lot of insecurity for everyone who’s already working.”
For job hunters, this summer has been unforgiving. The number of people out of work for six months or more jumped by 160,000 from July to August. And the number of workers who want full-time employment but can’t find it has hit 10.7 percent — a recessionary level, according to economists Jared Bernstein and Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute.
Even college graduates are feeling the pinch. Their 2.7 percent unemployment rate is the highest since 2004, while the 9.6 percent unemployment rate for workers without a high-school diploma is the highest since 1996.
The headlines look to GDP, but that isn’t necessarily the best measure.
Look instead at domestic demand, which better reflects the fall in imports and surge in exports.
GDP = private consumption, plus government consumption, plus capital investment, plus exports, minus imports.
More exports due to falling local demand pushes up GDP, as do fewer imports.
Domestic demand = private consumption, plusgovernment consumption, plus capital investment, minus exports, plus imports.
If exports rise, domestic demand falls.
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Domestic demand contracted 0.18% in the first quarter of this year, and 1.56% in the second.
There ya go, Mr. David Downer.
Why not look to the bright side?
There are some really, really good deals on real estate these days
I already bought mine, a two bed, two bath condo in San Francisco.
.
Saved a bundle!