$100 on Gore to Win!
Political prediction markets are all the rage. They’re basically websites where you can bet on the outcome of events like presidential elections (or Bush’s approval rating, economic indicators, or move box office receipts).
Slate explains, “The thrill of prediction markets for political junkies is that they harness “the wisdom of crowds.” A single person’s bet on an election outcome isn’t very good, but thousands of bets, with real stakes, are more likely to predict the correct result than even the best pundit.”
The biggest players are: The Iowa Electronics Market (uses real money) and Intrade Trading Exchange (uses play money).
On Intrade, a $100 payoff on the winning Republican presidential candidate currently costs (note: the higher the cost, the more likely the candidate is to win, according to the market):
GIULIANI: $40.20
MCCAIN: $20.40
ROMNEY: $16.50
THOMPSON: $13.50
GINGRICH: $3.70
A $100 payoff on the Democratic winner currently costs:
CLINTON: $49.00
OBAMA: $28.40
GORE: $10.70
EDWARDS: $8.30
Without mentioning Tancredo or Paul these political prediction markets are revealing themselves to be part of “the system”. Whenever pajamasmedia is oh so kind enough to include Ron Paul in the polls he’s # 1!!!!!
Bill: Actually, I’m pretty sure they’re in their. They were just such long shots I didn’t take the time to copy and paste their stats.
http://pajamasmedia.com/strawpoll2008/results.php?precinctid=d7b93ad39dd2b3ab00924ee074aabdd3a
I don’t know specifically about these “markets” you mention but from previous comments from Chris regarding pajamas media and other stories there’s definitely a media blackout going on.