FOX News Poll: Republicans Losing Ground in ’08 Race
Can the GOP turn things around in 08? Will the GOP lose or gain house seats in 08? How many?
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton now holds a slight lead over top Republican Rudy Giuliani for the first time in a hypothetical 2008 presidential matchup. In fact, to varying degrees, Clinton and fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama beat every Republican candidate they are tested against in the latest FOX News Poll.
Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from July 17 to July 18. The poll has a 3-point error margin.
President Bush can do little to give Republicans a boost as his own ratings remain dismal. Today, 32 percent of Americans say they approve of the job Bush is doing and 61 percent disapprove. His current approval is just 1 point higher than his record-low 31 percent approval received last month (June 26-27).
Another hurdle for Republican hopefuls is the perception that Democrats in Congress (38 percent) are more optimistic than Republicans in Congress (31 percent) about the direction of the country.
In seven different head-to-head matchups, the poll shows the Democratic candidate tops the Republican. While this had been the case when Clinton was tested against Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, this is the first time she has the advantage over Giuliani.
FYI
Sagging ratings may not hurt Dems
WASHINGTON (AP) — Dismal approval ratings for the Democratic-led Congress — even worse than President Bush’s — don’t seem to be a threat to the party in next year’s elections.
Congress’ reputation is hurt by widespread anger over the war in Iraq, and lawmakers’ inability to change the war’s course. On that point, Republicans are still far more vulnerable than Democrats, say strategists in both parties.
That’s why Democrats are doing all they can to stoke dissatisfaction with the war through repeated votes and attention-grabbing scenes like the Senate’s all-night debate this week. For now, they’re not worrying that voters will punish them for failing to achieve their agenda.
“The Democrats now own a share of discontent with national conditions, but it’s a minority share. People still look to the White House and Republicans” as the people responsible for most of the discontent, said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
Just 24% approved of Congress’ job performance in the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll this month, down 11% from only two months ago. That included a sizable drop — nearly in half — among Democrats, just 27% of whom approved. The rating among independents also fell by 10%, to 23%. Meanwhile, Bush’s overall approval rating remained unchanged at 33% this moth.
FIND MORE STORIES IN: Iraq | Congress | Democrats | Republicans | George W Bush | Democrat | Harry Reid | Senate Majority Leader | Sen. Carl Levin
The numbers for Congress are the worst in a year, and match the dubious standing of the GOP Congress in 2006, months before voters rejected Republicans en masse. AP’s survey indicated that the war, more than anything else, was seen as the most important problem facing the country.
Democratic leaders have studied the latest numbers and concluded they can counteract them by reminding the public repeatedly that they’re pushing for change, especially on the war.
“People need to understand clearly that Republicans … are the roadblock to change, and things like the filibuster all night can help illustrate that,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of his party’s House campaign arm.
The numbers might be cause for panic if Democrats controlled both Congress and the White House, said Republican strategist Gary Andres, but in divided government, “it tends to be less directly linked to seats won or lost than people think.”
Nonetheless, some leading Republicans say the low ratings give challengers an opening to take on Democrats.
“In politics just like in life, you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and those ratings show (Democrats) couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start,” said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., chairman of the House GOP re-election committee.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., blamed Congress’s tanking popularity on Democrats’ inability to pass major legislation, saying the majority has focused instead on “repetitious Iraq votes” and investigating the Bush administration.
“The American people have figured it out. They thought that by getting a new Congress they were going to get more production,” McConnell said.
Still, national surveys show Democratic candidates with a sizable advantage over Republicans. In individual races, said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., his party’s Senate campaign chief, voters are “not spreading the blame equally.”
Schumer called the low ratings “a referendum on Republican obstructionism.”
Crying obstruction by political opponents is a familiar campaign tactic that carries risks, and there’s no guarantee it will be enough to persuade voters to keep Democrats in power. In 1982, when Democrats controlled Congress and Ronald Reagan was president, low congressional approval ratings coincided with a major pickup of seats for the majority party.
Congress’ sagging popularity rating may reflect public ambivalence about its role.
“You’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t,” said Republican strategist Andres. “If you get a lot of things done, you tend to have to compromise and cut deals a little different than you said you were going to when you got elected. If you stick to your principles and then are blocked by the other party because you won’t compromise, then people say you haven’t accomplished anything.”
That doesn’t mean Democrats can sit back and complain about Republicans for the next year. Aside from increasing the federal minimum wage, most of their domestic agenda hangs in limbo.
“I don’t believe in the long term that you win or lose an election by saying, ‘We couldn’t do anything because the other side wouldn’t let us,’ ” said former Democratic Rep. Martin Frost of Texas.
Eager for some achievements to tout when they leave for their month-long summer break in August, leaders are scrambling to try to deliver to Bush’s desk measures enacting the anti-terrorism recommendations of the 9/11 commission and overhauling lobbying rules.
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who has advised congressional leaders this year, said they need to “fight like heck to get the things done that we think are important.”
“Yeah, people would like things to be different in Iraq, but they recognize that the reason they’re not is because of the president, and because there are still too many Republicans in Congress,” Mellman said.
If the numbers stay as bleak as they are now, though, Democrats might have reason to worry in 2008.
“The jury is still out on Congress,” Frost said. “The question is how the public feels this time next year.”
Americans like the Constitution.
Dishonor it, and you’ll pay.
This could all backfire on them. With a year and 1/4 to go before voters really tune in, the democrats could look very good or very bad depending on so many factors that they may well shoot themselves in the foot.
We could have a summer of “we told you so,” by either party next year that will not only make it very interesting but could upset the best laid plans.
Much of what they are doing is gambling on the war effort continuing to go bad, no 9-11 type event, Iran not doing something aggressive, immigration issues dying down, some other piece of legislation making voters mad, etc.
One thing about this early “campaign” is that they will make statements in both parties that could make them look very intelligent or very dumb when events play out this fall and next spring in the world economy, U.S. economy, currency value, terrorism, etc.
“On the record” with video for 1 year, should be very interesting history by next summer. I think the democrats are counting on too much based on voter sentiment now. We have a fickle voter population that can turn on a dime. They don’t even have loyalty to “made in America,” so why think they will be loyal to their party.
In fact, millions are leaving their party for “independent ranks” or where they won’t vote at all. These polls need to focus more on the independents to get a real idea of GOP power since the GOP only has about 25% of the voters that are loyal to it to any degree and maybe not even that many. The Democrats only have about 37% and so they need 14% of the independents even if all 37% vote for them and many of them may stay home too.
Jan Paul,
It won’t matter what the GOP does. Rudifred McRomney has been screaming “stay the course” for months now. Any deviation from “stay the course” is considered treason by Republican primary voters hence a sure loss in ‘08. Unless you have some insight into the mind of little Bush your predictions are pretty way off. The only way the GOP could have any chance would be to call for the immediate impeachment and removal of Bush from office. I can’t see that happening anytime. The general populaces opinion of Bush and his agenda is pretty much set in stone at this point.
I just opened this thread for the first time and don’t know where to start. And this will be brief.
David O ‘Rear states:
“Americans like the Constitution.
Dishonor it, and you’ll pay.”
Oh, David, how I wish that were true! But it’s doubtful the average “Joe” is focused adequately.
Jan Paul states, in his comment “immigration issues dying down…” Jan Paul, I DOUBT IT!! Jan Paul, you either are part of the opposition, or you don’t understand what’s going on!
And Caroline goes on trying to nit pick the Republicans, while totally ignoring her own parties transgressions! She doesn’t understand both parties are really one closed system, to exclude the true believers. I sure see that on my side in the Republican camp.
And the way John introduces this whole mess, not providing for a third party “way out”. ie. we need to select one of the two evil people which the “system” puts forth!!!
I don’t play that game. Our Nation is at stake!
Hugh, you forgot to mention the gays. If they get married we’re all done.
If this poll is accurate (which I doubt) then it’s due to the fact that many people still haven’t heard of Ron Paul (thanks to the Corporate media) And never forget Fox is neocon central. Also remember that Rupert Murdoch held a fundraiser for Hillary!!! The shifts in alliance are quite telling!! Anybody loyal to the power grid is starting to play nice with this stinkwhore.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12762092/
Hugh,
I was talking from the standpoint of winning the ‘08 election. I’m well aware that the Democrats are far from perfect.
I think it’s too early to read anything into these polls especially when this one as a margin of error of +/- 3. Actually, I’m surprised its as close as it is between Clinton and Guilliani in the midst of all the Bush bashing and reports of the obliteration of the Republican party. More interesting is that 29% of those polled said Clinton is the one candidate they would never vote for with the next highest candidate being Guilliani at 8%.
Hoads,
That 29% shouldn’t be a surprise. There’s a whole Republican cottage industry based on hating anyone with the name Clinton. I’m sure that’s the same 29% who thought Bill should be impeached before Monica even showed up on the radar! LOL!
Regarding immigration dying down. Congress is counting on a bill being passed and with no new bill, voters forgetting about it and both parties have their own view of how that will play out but, voters are notoriously fickle and while right now it doesn’t seem possible it could die down, it could if there are no bills being presented.
Also, the war could “be over” and troops coming home or we could be attacking Iran. There is no sure thing in that either and again, voters that are calling for an end now, could be ranting for more attacks by us if we get hit again and they believe we “have no choice.”
If you are counting on voters to “stay the course,” you may be overly optimistic about voters.
Currently, I wouldn’t bet a dime on the GOP even holding onto 40 seats in Congress. I certainly wouldn’t bet on the Presidency. The “trend” continues to get worse for the GOP and I don’t see that changing but, history tells us that it can and often does.
The Democrats are so bad, that they are only doing well because the GOP is doing worse. Think about it. Congress is 20 pts lower in approval than the President. The Congress is Democratic majority and the President is Republican and yet, 20 pts higher in approval ratings.
I guarantee, the Democrats can and often do, shoot themselves in the foot because they support socialism and there are still a lot of Americans that don’t.
When neither party is leading the nation in the right direction and voters are dissatisfied with both parties and likely to stay home in both parties, anything can happen. Both parties have to have a significant number of independents vote for them to get 51% of the vote.
Again, I can’t see the GOP winning but don’t count them out.
Also, what if we leave Iraq as the Democrats call for and it causes huge problems for the U.S. in the aftermath economically or even moreso, due to terrorism attacks that come from al-Qaeda operatives in Iraq?
How would voters view our leaving then? I don’t know. What do you think?
Jan Paul,
The congressional approval ratings have come up while Bush’s has gone down. Anyhow, the reason congress’ rating has been bad is because they have been way too accomodating to Bush.
Osama is gaining as long as we stay in Iraq. It’s part of his plan-the one he was taught to use against the USSR by the Reagan Administration. There’s nothing we can gain by staying at this point. It’s costing us 15 billion a month. If other nations quit giving us loans, it’s all over no matter what anyone wants.
For Congress:
ALL adults most recent — 29 %.
Trend:
6/26-28/07— 27%
5/18-23/07— 36%
For President:
7/17-18/07—32%
6/26-27/07—31%
6/5-6/07— 34%
5/15-16/07— 34%
Looks like both have moved up after moving down.
http://pollingreport.com/index.html
Favorability
Gallup Poll. July 12-15, 2007. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
RV = registered voters. LV = likely voters.
.
“We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people — or if you have never heard of them. How about George W. Bush?”
.
Favorable 7/12-15/07—37%
CBS News. June 26-28, 2007. N=836 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
.
“Do you think the current Congress has accomplished more or less than Congress usually does during its first six months?”
.
6/26-28/07 More—-16%
The “trend for the nation” is about the same to, trending down with this last polling data showing a slight improvement. I don’t see enough separation either way to brag on for either Congress or the President nor for either party.
Do the voters even know what is good or bad, who is good or bad for the nation? Or, are they just going on what the media hypes? For 70 years they have been electing people who have been lowering our standard of living. So, do the voters really know what they are doing?
Post your source on the polling data. There are many sources and some are better than others. Your source may be better.
I agree that we are losing ground currently if we stay, psychologically as this is encouraging the terrorists. The problem is that things may be even worse, economically, if we leave and they start selling Iraq oil in euros again as Saddam did.
However, we may be to the point where even that won’t help that much for long with more and more nations moving away from the dollar and China trying to diversify out of treasury notes and into other dollar based assets like stocks, companies, mines, oil fields, etc.
I think, however, that whether we stay or not, the world is losing respect for us and our ability to be a military force that is feared like it used to be. We may be facing the same scene Russia faced just before it collapsed militarily. Remember, they didn’t get conquered or even totally collapse as a economy (close though) but, did collapse as a military power that was able to keep the satellite nations under absolute control like they did before. They just couldn’t afford their military anymore and keep spending for social programs going at the same time. And, without the social programs, the people would have revolted and overthrown the government, possibly.
Now, they are getting economically strong and starting to act more “totalitarian” again. It should be interesting over the next few years as we decline economically, and they rise militarily again and possibly continue to improve their economy due to resource wealth Europe needs.
We are definitely up against a wall in Iraq and something better happen “good” very soon, or Congress WILL pull the plug on spending and the people of this nation will support those who vote to do it.
I’ll have to hunt for my polling source. It had congress going up to 30 and Bush staying in the high twenties.
I know a lot of countries are moving away from the dollar. We’ve made so many enemies who may not want to fight us on the battlefield (or perhaps they may want to fight us now since our state is very weakened) but who can fight us economically. Even Osama is using economics along with his other nefarious plans.
I don’t hold out much hope that anything will change in Iraq. We’re in the fifth year and we have dumped until millions to help start a civil war. Not we are more or less babysitting that civil war for a very expensive price tag.
We are nearing a dangerous level for the dollar according to some who track “resistance levels.” If it holds, they think we may see some rallying for awhile. If it doesn’t they think we could see a 20% drop, or at least some believe that much is possible.
Also, the more nations that fear that could happen the more they will do things that may actually weaken it more. If their fear drives them to the euro or other strong currencies, they may see the value of the dollars they hold drop even faster.
There are so many variables, however, this could go on for years. Many believe the world wide economic boom will keep us propped up too. But, I have yet to see any reliable source, including our own government that doesn’t say we are headed for a crisis that will reduce our standard of living. In fact, it is our own government that is really negative on the future.
As the GAO said in their report,
Quote:
Further, GAO’s audit report also included an emphasis paragraph for the 3rd consecutive year noting that the nation’s current fiscal path is unsustainable and that tough choices by the President and the Congress are necessary to address the nation’s large and growing long-term fiscal imbalance.
======================
This is not about one party or the other as much as neither party being able to stop what is happening without making a lot of voters very mad. Voters are not going to willingly accept the reforms necessary to stop this crisis from happening.