Latest New Hampshire Poll
I will stay with my earlier prediction that Ron Paul will finish strong in New Hampshire. My question to GOP insiders do you think because Thompson is trailing Ron Paul and Huckabee is tied in the polls should they be left out of the debate as fringe candidates?
FOX-The Democratic race in the key early primary state of New Hampshire has tightened with Barack Obama gaining ground on front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to a new poll released Sunday.
On the Republican side, support for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has grown slightly since the last poll of New Hampshire voters in October, according to the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
Among Democrats, Clinton, the New York senator, led with 36 percent, followed by Illinois senator Obama with 25 percent. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards had 14 percent, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson 6 percent.
Romney led all Republicans with 33 percent, followed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 22 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 13 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee each had 7 percent, with former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson at 5 percent.
If Mitt wins IA and NH does Rudy drop out? I don’t think the map becomes any more favorable to him for a while. Thompson seems to really be fading. I guess that’s what a lethargic campaign will do.
Hillary is also having problems I think Obama might catch up.
[...] Brianâ??s Blog wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt…prediction that Ron Paul will finish strong in New Hampshire. My question to GOP insiders do you think because Thompson is trailing Ron Paul… [...]
John,
I doubt Obama is going to catch up in NH. In IA, there’s a three way tie. That’s the state to watch and see what happens.
Caroline is right about NH. Look at the demographics!
Hugh,
I wasn’t basing my statement on demographics so much as how he has been running his campaign.
Caroline, I haven’t been following his campaign, but I’m certain he has looked at the demographics and he’s smart enough to realize NH is a lost cause for him. I freely talk about this natural association patterns (ie, iike with like) of the races, but many folks won’t touch it as it violates the PC codes! But I go for the truth, where ever that leads me.
caroline,
This is an interesting trend which is why I think Hillary could have a problem and Paul is gaining mo.
In University of New Hampshire poll Clinton’s lead shrinks by 9 percentage points:
Dems: Clinton 35, Obama 21, Edwards 15, Richardson 10.
GOP: Romney 32, Giuliani 20, McCain 17, Paul 7, Huckabee 5.
Marist poll has Clinton’s lead over Obama falling from 21 percentage points to 11:
Dems: Clinton 36 (drops 5), Obama 25 (gains 5), Edwards 14, Richardson 6.
GOP: Romney 33 (gains 7), Giuliani 22, McCain 13, Paul 7 (gains 5), Huckabee 7, Thompson
READ MORE
John,
You have to compare like pollsters with like pollsters. You can’t take a UNH poll and compare it with a Marist poll. The one to watch is IA, like I said. Hillary will win NH. The New England candidate usually does. Just like Romney is going to win NH and probably IA. He’ll probably start rolling and win the nomination, I’m willing to bet.
How much do you want to bet caroline?
Ron Paul is a non-factor (something he is used to as an outcast member of Congress).
This primary season will go against tradition with the first two states having little bearing on the final nominees for both parties.
Well bb, Mitt is leading in both states. If Rudy can’t win NH, that will be considered a big blot on his campaign don’t you think? Is Rudy leading in even one state?
caroline
I think you are right because his support is based on he can beat Hillary it is very soft. That is why they are spending so much time in NH.
John,
The latest polls show Hillary whomping Giuliani so I guess he hasn’t read polls in quite a while.
caroline
I saw a poll and they were a dead heat.
FYI
RCP Average 10/17 – 11/06 – 43.8 48.6 5.0 Clinton +4.8
Rasmussen 11/05 – 11/06 800 LV 42 48 10 Clinton +6.0
NBC/WSJ 11/01 – 11/05 1509 A 45 46 4 Clinton +1.0
CNN 11/02 – 11/04 929 RV 45 51 4 Clinton +6.0
USA Today/Gallup 11/02 – 11/04 938 RV 45 51 1 Clinton +6.0
Newsweek 10/31 – 11/01 1002 RV 45 49 6 Clinton +4.0
ABC/Wash Post 10/29 – 11/01 1131 A 46 50 1 Clinton +4.0
Marist 10/29 – 11/01 1102 A 40 50 10 Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac 10/23 – 10/29 1636 RV 45 43 6 Giuliani +2.0
Democracy Corps (D) 10/21 – 10/23 994 LV 45 49 3 Clinton +4.0
Pew Research 10/17 – 10/23 1607 RV 43 51 6 Clinton +8.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/19 – 10/22 512 RV 41 47 4 Clinton +6.0
READ MORE
caroline wrote, “He’ll (Romney) probably start rolling and win the nomination, I’m willing to bet.”
Again I ask, how much do you want to bet?
bb,
Why do you think Giuliani will win? He’s leading in the national polls but there isn’t a national primary. If he loses the first two primaries it’s not going to look good.
Bet? It was a figure of speech. I guess you don’t understand such things. Besides, didn’t the GOP outlaw online betting?
John,
So Hillary is averaging 5 pts on Rudy across the nation. I wouldn’t put that in the “Rudy can win category”. LOL!
When the election comes around it’s GOP nominee=Bush so he and every other Republican will probably start to poll even lower.
LMAO! No caroline, I don’t understand you dems who brashly put forth a challenge, then back off as soon as somebody answers. But please keep doing it…kind of like Hillary with the ‘I’m for illegal drivers licenses, no I’m against, maybe I’m for them’…probably just a “FIGURE OF SPEECH” that went right over the tops of our collective heads since she is the smartest woman in the world!!!
As I stated earlier, the NH and Iowa votes MAY have less influence on the election than ever before because of ‘Tsunami Tuesday’ on Feb. 5. Rudy will win NY, FL, CA and many other primaries that day no matter how Mitt does in IA and NH. Additionally, the third primary in SC is a tossup with Rudy likely to win there.
I’m not saying Rudy has it in the bag, but I will definitely bet against Mitt if you locate your spine
bb,
Don’t blame me for your lack of understanding. You guys are such silly gooses! Typical conservative-try to foist your own shortcomings onto others.
LMAO! Your the one without a spine! You can’t even stand up to the most unpopular President in modern history!
So Rudy can win three states? That doesn’t seem like enough to get the nomination. The SC GOP is full of idiots who will vote for who they’re told to vote for. If Rudy can get Strom’s widow to endorse him then all the baa baa conservatives will come out and vote for him.
Glad to see that you’ve finally decided that the culture war is lost