Obama the presumptive nominee; Limbaugh gives Clinton Indiana
Clinton called tonight’s primary a game changer, and she got that right. A double-diget loss in NC and a gift from Limbaugh in IN—the Clinton momentum has petered out. Look for the superdelegates to start moving to Obama en masse. And look for Obama to start surging in the Obama vs. McCain polls. (That gas tax issue was a dead end and is very representative of McPander’s weaknesses.)
As for Limbaugh: One exit poll question asks Indiana voters who they would support in a Clinton-McCain contest. 17% of them say McCain. Of those voters, 41% say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. In other words, these voters, 7% of the Indiana electorate, voted for Clinton in the primary but have no intention of supporting her in the fall.
Now, this isn’t a precise measure of the “Limbaugh effect” — no doubt there are some Republicans who backed Obama in the primary out of anti-Clinton sentiment, but plan to vote for McCain in November. But it is a good place to start when making a ballpark estimate. And it’s a sizeable number — 7% may wind up being as big as her margin of victory.
Russert calls Obama the nominee:
Exit Polls: Limbaugh Effect Seems To Rear Its Head
HP-Did Rush Limbaugh actually impact the Democratic primary?
The loud-mouthed radio talk show host has been encouraging Republicans to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton to continue the “chaos” in the Democratic race. And a sampling of some key exit poll information suggests he may, to a certain extent, be having an effect.
Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said “neither candidate” shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton.
These are not small numbers. By comparison, of the 33 percent of voters who said Sen. Barack Obama does not share their values, only seven percent cast their ballots in his favor. Basically, more people who don’t relate to Clinton are, for one reason or another, still voting for her. These are not likely to be loyal supporters.
On a broader level, among the 17 percent of primary goers who said they would choose Sen. John McCain over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, 41 percent of that group came from Clinton’s own camp. In essence, roughly seven percent of Clinton support in Indiana (40 percent of 17 percent) said they would defect to the Republican should she end up the nominee. That would be a difficult punch to stomach in November. In 2004, nearly 1 million Indianans voted for John Kerry. A seven percent defection rate would have meant 70,000 less votes.
By contrast, if the general election is between Obama and McCain, 19 percent of the Indiana Democratic primary goers said they would support the Republican. But only 12 percent of that group (2.28 percent) would come from Obama’s camp.
The numbers suggest one of three things: A) Clinton’s support in Indiana, while clearly there, is not entirely solid; B) a large swath of Indiana primary goers simply didn’t like the nominees and thought of Clinton as the lesser of two evils; or C) Limbaugh’s hatchet plan could be having political ripples.
Perhaps it’s a mix of all three.
Rush Limbaugh: ‘Operation Chaos’ A Success In Extending Nomination
Did Rush win?
HP-Did Rush Limbaugh disrupt the primaries today? He certainly thinks so; discover Operation Chaos:
RUSH LIMBAUGH: Greetings my friends. Greetings special operatives and commandos. I am commander-in-chief, US Operation Chaos. Rush Limbaugh, [inaudible] broadcast excellence for the next three hours. From behind the Golden EIB microphone at the heavily fortified and bunkered EIB Southern Command in Palm Beach, Florida.
I just got an email right before the email started. It said, “Rush, you are the lead at TIME Magazine.com. This is madness.” So I went there, and it’s Mark Halperin’s blog, and there is a picture of me in a blue background with all kinds of stars surrounding my beautiful face and head. And the headline above this graphic is “Chaos?!” with an exclamation point and a question mark, and it references this story that I’m holding here in my formerly nicotine-stained fingers. The Indianapolis Star today on its website is updating turnout and other aspects of the primary vote in Indiana today. And the headline of their 10:51 am report was “Hardcore Republicans voting Democrat.” And the TIME Magazine blog says, “Listen to Limbaugh Crow About This at Noon Eastern.” I think they have a link to my website.
Wait a minute…just a few weeks ago, you guys said Rush has no influence…now he does?
I never said Rush has no influence.
FYI
BREAKING: Wesley Clark reportedly called Hillary tonight, urging her to drop out
bb, what we said is: “Rush is often under the influence…”
Captain
GREAT POINT!
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John Konop wrote — “I never said Rush has no influence.”
On February 8th John Konop in reply to this question: “John, Why are you so jealous of Rush’s success and influence?”, John Konop wrote:
“What influence”
You stand corrected.
Bart
He does have influence on blind cult members like you!
John,
So you are flip-flopping…he does have influence!
Bart
On cult members like you!
Bart
Do you like Rush when he is real high?
Hillary Clinton says she’ll stay in the presidential race
TH-Hillary Rodham Clinton says she will remain in the presidential race “until there’s a nominee.” The former first lady declined to say whether that meant through the roll call of the states at the Democratic National Convention this summer.
Clinton also disclosed that she had loaned her campaign an additional $6.4 million in recent weeks, additional evidence that her once front-runner campaign was in deep trouble.
She told reporters the loans were a sign of her commitment to her quest for the White House. She earlier loaned herself $5 million as she struggled to keep up with a better-financed Obama campaign.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama pocketed the support of at least four Democratic convention superdelegates on Wednesday, building on the momentum from a convincing North Carolina primary victory.
READ MORE
Obama Camp Aims to Finish Off Clinton in Nomination Fight